The Strategic Choice of Obasanjo for Nigeria’s 1999 Presidency
In his newly launched autobiography, Being True to Myself, former Jigawa State Governor and ex-National Secretary of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), Sule Lamido, sheds light on the political calculations behind Olusegun Obasanjo’s emergence as Nigeria’s president in 1999.
Lamido explains that Obasanjo was chosen over prominent Yoruba leaders like Bola Ige, Olu Falae, and Abraham Adesanya—not because he was the most favored among the Yoruba elite, but because he was seen as the candidate who could best unify Nigeria .
Why Obasanjo? The Quest for a “Yoruba Nigerian President”
According to Lamido, the decision was driven by a crucial distinction:
“We wanted a Yoruba Nigerian President, not a president of the Nigerian Yoruba.”
The political class, particularly retired military generals within the newly formed Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), believed Obasanjo had the national stature needed to stabilize Nigeria after years of military rule. Key factors in his favor included:
1. Military Pedigree & National Trust– As a former military Head of State (1976-1979), Obasanjo had already demonstrated leadership during Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule. His role as Chief of Staff under Murtala Mohammed and his handling of the 1979 handover to Shehu Shagari reinforced his image as a nationalist .
2. Ethnic Neutrality – Unlike Ige or Falae, who were seen as primarily representing Yoruba interests, Obasanjo had a history of putting national unity above ethnic loyalty. His refusal to overturn the 1979 election in favor of Obafemi Awolowo—despite pressure from Yoruba leaders—cemented this perception .
3. Broad Appeal Beyond the South-West – Obasanjo’s military background and pan-Nigerian outlook made him acceptable to northern and eastern power blocs, unlike Falae, whose Alliance for Democracy (AD) was regionally limited .
The Yoruba Backlash: Obasanjo vs. Abiola
Despite his credentials, Obasanjo’s selection angered many Yoruba leaders and masses, who saw him as a traitor for two key reasons:
1. 1979 Handover to Shagari – Yoruba elites felt Obasanjo betrayed their interests by upholding Shehu Shagari’s victory over Awolowo, despite the controversial "twelve two-thirds" constitutional debate.
2. Opposition to MKO Abiola’s June 12 Mandate – Obasanjo’s refusal to support Abiola’s struggle to reclaim his annulled 1993 election victory deepened resentment. The fact that both men were from Abeokuta but were divided by ideology, religion, and personal rivalry made the betrayal even more bitter .
The 1999 Election: A Calculated Gamble for National Stability
Lamido admits that the choice of Obasanjo was not about placating the Yoruba but ensuring Nigeria’s fragile democracy survived. The PDP’s strategy worked—Obasanjo won 62.78% of the vote, defeating Falae, who ran on a joint AD-APP ticket .
The election, though flawed, marked Nigeria’s return to civilian rule after 16 years of military dictatorship .
Key Takeaways for Nigerian Politics
- Ethnic Balancing vs. Nationalism – Obasanjo’s selection highlights the tension between ethnic representation and national cohesion in Nigerian politics.
- Military Influence in Civilian Transitions – Retired generals played a decisive role in shaping Nigeria’s post-military democracy.
- Legacy of June 12 – The Yoruba’s sense of marginalization after Abiola’s betrayal still influences political alignments today.
Final Thoughts
Sule Lamido’s revelations offer a rare glimpse into the backroom politics that shaped Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. While Obasanjo’s presidency remains controversial, his emergence in 1999 was a strategic compromise—one that prioritized Nigeria’s fragile unity over regional loyalty.
What do you think? Was Obasanjo the right choice in 1999, or did Nigeria miss an opportunity with Falae or Ige? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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